2008年上半年宏观经济形势及其对我国银行业发展的影响分析

2008年是历史上不平常的一年,在美国次贷危机、世界经济增速减缓的全球经济背景下,我国国民经济又受到冰冻和地震的较大影响。面临复杂的国际、国内经济形势,国家数次出台组合宏观调控政策,确保了宏观经济的平稳发展。在当前国内外宏观经济形势下,本文结合国内经济运行情况对我国银行业发展的情况进行了分析,并提出具体措施建议。     

对当前中国宏观经济形势的深入分析

目前,由于受世界金融危机和国内经济形势的不利影响,我国国民经济增长由上升转为下降趋势,宏观经济的发展形势严峻。但是我国国内生产总值有望持续增长,经济发展势头良好。我们应该在深刻了解宏观经济发展趋势的同时,促进经济的进一步发展。     

中美应对金融危机的政策及其比较

起源于美国的金融危机席卷全球,中国和美国都采取了相应的财政政策和货币政策,但中美两国在政策实施的时间、货币政策和财政政策的选择、宏观政策的具体实施及其着力点上因两国经济环境和面对的实际情况的不同而不同.本文就此问题进行了研究.     

建筑产品价格探讨

建筑产品价格的变动趋势影响业主、承包商、金融机构及其他相关利益团体的投资决策，随着我国加入WTO及建筑业与世界接轨，计划经济时期以行政命令方式决定建筑产品价格、计划经济向市场经济转变时期依据统一定额和费率决定建筑产品价格的模式已不适应市场经济的发展了，西方市场经济国家成熟的无底招标模式在我国的应用也正在探索之中。为了正确理解建筑产品价格并进一步为建筑产品价格的预测奠定一定的基础，结合我国建筑业的实际，探讨建筑产品价格的特点、不同经济时期建筑产品价格形成的模式以及建筑产品价格运动的规律，并初步探讨了可能影响建筑产品价格的宏观经济变量。     

Postmaterialism influencing total entrepreneurial activity across nations

The relative stability of differences in entrepreneurial activity across countries suggests that other than economic factors are at play. The objective of this paper is to explore how postmaterialism may explain these differences. A distinction is made between nascent entrepreneurship, new business formation and a combination of the two, referred to as total entrepreneurial activity, as defined within the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). The model is also tested for the rate of established businesses. The measure for postmaterialism is based upon Inglehart’s four-item postmaterialism index. A set of economic, demographic and social factors is included to investigate the independent role postmaterialism plays in predicting entrepreneurial activity levels. In particular, per capita income is used to control for economic effects. Education rates at both secondary and tertiary levels are used as demographic variables. Finally, life satisfaction is included to control for social effects. Data from 27 countries (GEM, World Values Survey and other sources) are used to test the hypotheses. Findings confirm the significance of postmaterialism in predicting total entrepreneurial activity and more particularly, new business formation rates.

The Impact of the Electric Car on the US Economy: 1998–2005

This paper presents an exercise in using the INFORUM LIFT macro-economic interindustry model of the US to analyze the industry and macro-economic impacts of structural change in the motor vehicles industry. This structural change is the result of the assumption that 3.6% of US automobiles sold will be electric vehicles by 2003, as a result of California legislation expected to be adopted by 13 states, which will take effect from 1998. In this study, alternative input–output coefficients for the motor vehicles and the automotive repair industries are derived for this mix of electric car production, and assumptions about fuel consumption and maintenance expenditures are also developed. The results of the study show that, although macro-economic effects are minimal, impacts on particular industries are significant, given the small level of market penetration assumed.     

增长渐步趋稳 通胀总体可控——2011年下半年中国宏观经济金融形势展望

2011下半年经济增长仍具有较强的内生动力,四季度随着物价涨幅回落和政策紧缩力度减轻,经济增速将企稳回升,＂硬着陆＂的风险很小。本轮CPI同比高点将在今年年中出现,下半年通胀将略有回落,全年通胀应可控制在5.2%左右。受贷款增长放缓、外汇占款继续快增但对冲力度较大和货币乘数持续较低等因素影响,下半年信贷增长将继续平稳回落,货币供应增速将延续放缓态势。货币政策总体基调维持＂稳健＂,但收紧力度会有所减弱,准备金率、利率运用频率明显降低,信贷总量维持偏紧格局但存在局部、适度放松的可能。     

我国房地产市场景气状况的宏观影响因素研究

我国房地产市场作为一个复杂的经济系统,使用非线性人工智能方法对其进行研究具有显著的优越性。本文通过将宏观经济指标数据指标作为输入变量,使用神经网络结合基因搜索算法进行训练与模拟,得出了主要经济指标房地产市的场影响程度排序,并得出了外汇储备规模的变动已成为影响房地产景气程度的重要影响因素这一结论。     

外资银行进入的金融风险监控指标体系研究

外资银行的进入在加快我国市场化进程、促进金融深化的同时,带来了巨大的金融风险。本文在分析外资银行发展现状的基础上,建立了对外资银行进入进行有效监控的指标体系、金融风险的宏观监控指标体系和微观监控指标体系,并提出一些政策建议。     

经济危机下我国开展反补贴研究的重要意义

反倾销、反补贴和保障措施是世界贸易组织框架下的重要贸易救济制度。近年来中国遭受外国政府反补贴调查26起,是遭受反补贴调查最多的国家之一。反补贴问题已成为我国对外贸易摩擦的新热点。外国已经裁决的反补贴案件表明,反补贴调查不仅是对我国宏观经济政策的挑战,也是对我国金融制度、土地制度等制度已经市场化的否定。预计在未来,外国政府对我国的反补贴调查仍会呈上升趋势。这种情况无疑凸现了深入研究国际反补贴制度的重要意义。